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Medical Research Spending: The $67.5 billion (95% CI: $54 billion-$81 billion) Lie

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war-on-disease, 1-percent-treaty, medical-research, public-health, peace-dividend, decentralized-trials, dfda, dih, victory-bonds, health-economics, cost-benefit-analysis, clinical-trials, drug-development, regulatory-reform, military-spending, peace-economics, decentralized-governance, wishocracy, blockchain-governance, impact-investing

Here is the complete accounting of humanity’s commitment to curing disease. Spoiler: It’s largely an accounting trick.

The Broad Number vs. The Real Number

Governments claim they spend billions on “medical research.” In 2024, the official global total for government medical R&D was approximately $67.5 billion (95% CI: $54 billion-$81 billion).

The ‘official’ number for medical research versus the real number after you subtract all the parts that aren’t actually curing diseases. Like restaurant portions, governments describe things generously.

The ‘official’ number for medical research versus the real number after you subtract all the parts that aren’t actually curing diseases. Like restaurant portions, governments describe things generously.

It sounds like a lot. It is a lie.

The Accounting Trick

That $68 billion figure includes: 1. Basic Science: Studying fruit fly genetics and yeast cells (important, but not a cure). 2. Overhead: University buildings, admin salaries, and electricity bills (often 40-60% of grants). 3. Bureaucracy: Salaries for the people who decide where the money goes. 4. Epidemiology: Counting how many people have died (instead of saving them).

Where the 68 billion goes: basic science, overhead, bureaucracy, and epidemiology. Notice how ‘curing diseases’ is not on this list.

Where the 68 billion goes: basic science, overhead, bureaucracy, and epidemiology. Notice how ‘curing diseases’ is not on this list.

The Real Number: $4.5 billion (95% CI: $3 billion-$6 billion)

When you strip away the overhead and basic science to ask “How much do governments spend on actually testing cures in humans?” the number collapses.

4.5 billion for clinical trials, divided by 8 billion people. That’s about 56 cents per human per year. You spend more on a pack of gum.

4.5 billion for clinical trials, divided by 8 billion people. That’s about 56 cents per human per year. You spend more on a pack of gum.

Global government spending on interventional clinical trials is only ~$4.5 billion (95% CI: $3 billion-$6 billion) per year.

That is the entire public contribution to testing new medicines for 8 billion people.

ImportantThe 604x Disparity

In 2024, global military spending reached $2.72 trillion. In contrast, global government spending on interventional clinical trials is estimated at $4.5 billion (95% CI: $3 billion-$6 billion).

For every dollar we spend on clinical trials, we spend 604 dollars on the military. We’re very good at killing people and very bad at not killing people. Consistency is important.

For every dollar we spend on clinical trials, we spend 604 dollars on the military. We’re very good at killing people and very bad at not killing people. Consistency is important.

This represents a funding ratio of 604 (90% CI: 453-888).

For every $1 governments spend testing cures, they spend 604 (90% CI: 453-888) on weapons and military systems.

The Industry Trap

“But doesn’t the pharmaceutical industry fund trials?”

Yes. In fact, industry funds ~90% of all interventional trials. The ratio of Industry to Government spending is 12.3 (90% CI: 8.23-19.3).

This creates a fatal incentive structure: 1. Profit First: Companies only test drugs that can be patented and sold for high prices. 2. Me-Too Drugs: It is safer to make the 12th slightly better antidepressant than to cure Alzheimer’s. 3. Orphan Diseases: If a disease doesn’t affect enough rich people, it gets zero funding. 4. Repurposed Generics: There is zero profit in proving that a cheap, off-patent drug cures cancer. So nobody funds those trials.

We have outsourced our survival to a business model that requires us to stay sick enough to buy pills, but alive enough to pay for them.

The drug industry flowchart: will it make money? No? Don’t cure it. Yes? Cure it. This is why we have seventeen acne medications and zero malaria vaccines. The market has spoken, and it has terrible skin.

The drug industry flowchart: will it make money? No? Don’t cure it. Yes? Cure it. This is why we have seventeen acne medications and zero malaria vaccines. The market has spoken, and it has terrible skin.

Broad R&D Breakdown: The Hall of Shame

Note: These figures refer to the broader “Medical Research” budgets (the $67.5 billion (95% CI: $54 billion-$81 billion) figure), not the specific clinical trial spending.

United States: The Alleged Leader

NIH Budget (2024): $47.1 billion1

  • Actual Clinical Trials: Only ~$810M - $5.6B2 (depending on definition).
  • Administrative Costs: 31%3 of the budget.
  • Indirect Costs: Universities take 40-60%4 for overhead.

Where the NIH’s 47.1 billion goes after universities and administrators take their cut. Like watching a cake get sliced, if most of the slices went to people who weren’t hungry.

Where the NIH’s 47.1 billion goes after universities and administrators take their cut. Like watching a cake get sliced, if most of the slices went to people who weren’t hungry.

China: The Rising Power

Medical Research Spending: ~$15 billion5

  • Prioritizes surveillance technology over medical breakthroughs.
  • Spends 97x more6 on domestic security than clinical research.

China spends 97 dollars on domestic security for every dollar on clinical research. They’re very committed to making sure people stay alive long enough to be monitored.

China spends 97 dollars on domestic security for every dollar on clinical research. They’re very committed to making sure people stay alive long enough to be monitored.

European Union

Horizon Europe Health Budget: €1.17 billion/year7

  • Per citizen: Less than the cost of a cup of coffee ($2.89/year).
  • Individual countries like Germany ($6B) and France ($4B) add to this, but the total remains a fraction of their military budgets.

The EU health budget per citizen, compared to a cup of coffee. The coffee costs more. At least the coffee keeps you awake while you slowly die of preventable diseases.

The EU health budget per citizen, compared to a cup of coffee. The coffee costs more. At least the coffee keeps you awake while you slowly die of preventable diseases.

The Rest of the World

  • Japan: $5 billion8 (Aging population, zero urgency).
  • India: $3 billion9 ($2.14 per person).
  • Russia: $800 million10 (Spend huge on nukes, pennies on health).

Medical research spending in Japan, India, and Russia. The differences are significant, like comparing a swimming pool, a bathtub, and a shot glass. All full of water, very different outcomes.

Medical research spending in Japan, India, and Russia. The differences are significant, like comparing a swimming pool, a bathtub, and a shot glass. All full of water, very different outcomes.

Conclusion: A Species-Wide Failure

We are the only species that pays for its own extinction while claiming it cannot afford its own survival.

  1. Global Military Spending: $2.72 trillion
  2. Pet Food: $150 Billion
  3. Video Games: $180 Billion
  4. Government Clinical Trials: $4.5 billion (95% CI: $3 billion-$6 billion)

We value our dogs’ dinner 30x more than finding cures for our children.

The solution is the 1% Treaty11 12: shifting just 1% of military spending ($27.2 billion) would increase global government clinical trial funding by 600%. We could run tens of thousands of pragmatic trials annually, breaking the industry monopoly on what gets tested and cured.

What humanity spends money on: trillions on military, billions on entertainment and pets, and whatever’s left over for not dying. We have our priorities, and they are terrible.

What humanity spends money on: trillions on military, billions on entertainment and pets, and whatever’s left over for not dying. We have our priorities, and they are terrible.