# The Cost of War
Since 1913, your “governments” have printed [\$170 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-cumulative_military_spending_fed_era) out of nothing and spent it on murdering [310 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_deaths_since_1900)^([1](../references.llms.md#ref-lost-human-capital-war-cost),[2](../references.llms.md#ref-leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006)) and destroying many valuable things those humans spent their entire lives building. Consequently, you would be [23.2x (90% CI: 8.4x-64x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_income_multiple) richer today from the compound effects of productive instead of destructive spending. They are still going. Current annual budget for organized violence: [\$2.72 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_military_spending_annual_2024)^([3](../references.llms.md#ref-sipri-milex-2024)). Current annual deaths from diseases you could be finding cures for: [55 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_deaths_curable_diseases)^([4](../references.llms.md#ref-who-global-health-estimates-2024)).
## The Itemized Receipt for Armageddon
### The Shopping List (2024 Global Data)
| Cost Category | Amount (USD Billions) | Per Capita | Daily Cost | How We Counted |
|----|----|----|----|----|
| Military Personnel Salaries | \$681.5 | \$87.37 | \$1.87B | Global armed forces: 28.4M × avg. salary \$24,000 (adjusted for inflation)^([5](../references.llms.md#ref-global-armed-forces-size-and-salary)) |
| Weapons Procurement | \$654.3 | \$83.88 | \$1.79B | SIPRI Arms Transfer Database^([6](../references.llms.md#ref-sipri2024)) aggregation |
| Operations & Maintenance | \$579.8 | \$74.33 | \$1.59B | NATO standardized O&M ratios × global spending^([7](../references.llms.md#ref-nato-om-ratios-global-spending)) |
| Military Infrastructure | \$520.4 | \$66.72 | \$1.43B | Base construction/maintenance × 4,435 major facilities^([8](../references.llms.md#ref-global-major-military-facilities)) |
| Intelligence Operations | \$282.0 | \$36.15 | \$0.77B | Estimated 10.4% of total military budgets^([9](../references.llms.md#ref-intelligence-spending-military-budgets)) |
#### Total Direct Military Spending: \$2,718.0 billion
[](cost-of-war_files/figure-html/cell-4-output-1.png)
Global military spending (inflation-adjusted) has grown 2.7× since 1960
This chart shows 124 years of global military spending from 1900 to 2024, all adjusted for inflation to constant 2023 dollars.
## What 124 Years of Receipts Are Screaming at Us
- **WWII Peak (1944):** \$3.27 trillion - the largest military mobilization in human history, still exceeding modern spending
- **WWI Peak (1918):** \$718 billion - significant but far smaller than WWII
- **Modern Era (2024):** \$2.72 trillion - approaching but not yet exceeding the WWII peak
Despite decades of peace and the absence of total global war, current military spending (\$2.72T) is 83% of the WWII peak and 41× higher than pre-WWI levels (\$66B in 1900). The world spends nearly as much on military today as it did during the largest war in history.
### Data Sources
- 1900-2012: Correlates of War National Material Capabilities Dataset (COW NMC)
- 2013-2024: SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) Military Expenditure Database
- All values converted to constant 2023 USD using CPI data
### The Equation of Immediate Destruction
$$ \mathrm{C}_{\text{direct}} = \mathrm{M}_{\text{spending}} + \mathrm{I}_{\text{damage}} + \mathrm{H}_{\text{casualties}} + \mathrm{T}_{\text{disruption}} $$
#### The Current Annual Bill
- M_(spending) = [\$2.72 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_military_spending_annual_2024) (verified via SIPRI database^([6](../references.llms.md#ref-sipri2024)))
- I_(damage) = [\$1.88 trillion (90% CI: \$1.65 trillion-\$2.1 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_infrastructure_destruction_conflict) (reconstruction cost estimates from 47 active conflicts)
- H_(casualties) = [\$2.45 trillion (90% CI: \$1.34 trillion-\$3.71 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_human_life_losses_conflict) ([245 thousand](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_conflict_deaths_total) total conflict deaths × \$10M VSL per EPA guidelines^([10](../references.llms.md#ref-epa-vsl-9-6m)) - includes combat deaths, terrorism, and state violence; see Death Accounting section below for breakdown)
- T_(disruption) = [\$616 billion (90% CI: \$526 billion-\$716 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_trade_disruption_conflict)^([11](../references.llms.md#ref-world-bank-trade-flow-analysis))
**C_(direct) = \$7,655 billion annually**
\$242,600 per second. Every second.
## Military Hardware: The World’s Worst Investment
If weapons were a stock, here is the prospectus:
- Expected annual return: 0%.
- If actually used, return: -100% (everything explodes, including the investment).
- Maintenance costs: \$579.8B/year.
- Useful life: 10-20 years before obsolescence.
- Salvage value: \$0.
- Exit strategy: Death.
- Investor profile: Nations with more money than sense.
- Side effects: May accidentally destroy civilization.
- Competitive dynamics: Makes neighbors buy the same product.
- Success condition: Only “works” if it is never used (if you use nuclear weapons, you have already failed).
No rational investor would touch this. You put trillions into it annually. Enough to buy enough bullets to murder every man, woman, and child on Earth [850](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-bullets_per_person_annual) times. Every year.
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-risk-factors-bw-academic.jpg)
You buy weapons because they have weapons. They buy weapons because you have weapons. Everyone has weapons. Nobody is safer. The circle is undefeated.
### The Dead Capital Problem
Military money sits in a warehouse, rusts, becomes obsolete, and has negative net value. If used, it destroys value, creates rebuilding bills, and kills your customers.
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-the-dead-capital-problem-bw-academic.jpg)
Normal investment: money becomes factories, factories make products, products make money. Military investment: money becomes bombs, bombs make rubble, rubble makes nothing. The budgets keep picking the second one.
The global economy is a factory. Eight billion workers, millions of machines, supply chains threading through every country on Earth, producing goods and services and wealth your ancestors could not have imagined. War is walking into that factory with a sledgehammer and smashing the machines. You destroy an oil refinery in the Middle East and fuel prices spike in Ohio. You bomb a port in the Red Sea and a car factory in Germany stops production because the parts are on a ship that can no longer dock. You hit an electrical grid and the hospitals go dark and the server farms go offline and the stock market drops because investors can see, in real time, the global machine becoming less efficient. Every missile that hits infrastructure is a sledgehammer blow to a machine that feeds you. The stock market does not drop because traders are emotional. It drops because the machine just lost a piece and everyone who depends on the machine (which is everyone) is now slightly poorer.
President Eisenhower (who defeated the Nazis) explained this in 1953:
*“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.”*
Eisenhower was a five-star General, which means he had five stars. Most generals only get three or four, so he was basically the Michelin Guide of killing people. He personally ran the largest military operation in human history, the invasion of Normandy. And even he thought you were overdoing it.
This is not pacifism. This is accounting.
The military budget is not protecting the factory. It is the sledgehammer. The net return on US military hegemony is **-\$674 billion to -\$1.38 trillion per year**. The only quantifiable benefit (\$20-200 billion in dollar reserve privilege) covers 2-23% of the cost. For the full cost-benefit ledger, including why the Navy’s claimed 1:30 return fails scrutiny, why regime change systematically increases civil war, and why Switzerland achieves better outcomes for \$7 billion than the US achieves for \$886 billion, see [The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Global Hegemony](../../knowledge/appendix/cost-benefit-of-hegemony.llms.md).
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-economic-vs-military-capital-flow-bw-academic.jpg)
A tractor builds value forever. A tank destroys value once. You bought more tanks.
### The Price of a Ghost: Valuing Human Life
The U.S. Department of Transportation says a statistical life is worth \$13.6 million^([12](../references.llms.md#ref-dot-vsl-13-6m)). The EPA says \$9.6 million^([10](../references.llms.md#ref-epa-vsl-9-6m)). We split the difference: \$10 million.
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-the-price-of-a-ghost-valuing-human-life-bw-academic.jpg)
The Transportation Department says your life is worth \$13.6 million. The EPA says \$9.6 million. They can’t agree on the price of you. But they can agree to spend it on missiles.
#### The Invoice for Dead People
| Conflict Type | Deaths/Year | Cost per Death | Annual Cost | Source |
|----|----|----|----|----|
| Active Combat | [234 thousand](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_conflict_deaths_active_combat) | \$10,000,000 | [\$2.34 trillion (90% CI: \$1.27 trillion-\$3.55 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_human_cost_active_combat) | Armed Conflict Location & Event Data^([13](../references.llms.md#ref-armed-conflict-location-event-data)) |
| Terror Attacks | [8,300](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_conflict_deaths_terror_attacks) | \$10,000,000 | [\$83 billion (90% CI: \$43.2 billion-\$132 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_human_cost_terror_attacks) | Global Terrorism Database^([14](../references.llms.md#ref-global-terrorism-database)) |
| State Violence | [2,700](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_conflict_deaths_state_violence) | \$10,000,000 | [\$27 billion (90% CI: \$12.2 billion-\$48.2 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_human_cost_state_violence) | Uppsala Conflict Data Program^([15](../references.llms.md#ref-wars-since-1945)) |
**Total Human Cost: [\$2.45 trillion (90% CI: \$1.34 trillion-\$3.71 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_human_life_losses_conflict) annually**
[245 thousand](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_conflict_deaths_total) people die in conflicts each year. That is 670 people every day. One every 2.2 minutes. Each worth \$10 million, apparently.
## Infrastructure Destruction
### Reconstruction Costs (2023 Estimates)
| Infrastructure Type | Damage (Billions) | War Zone Markup | How This Was Calculated |
|----|----|----|----|
| Roads and bridges | \$487.3^([16](../references.llms.md#ref-reconstruction-costs-active-conflicts)) | 1.4× original cost | You blew up the road. Now the road costs more. |
| Power plants and grids | \$421.7^([16](../references.llms.md#ref-reconstruction-costs-active-conflicts)) | 2.1× original cost | Electricity is harder to restore than to destroy (as a general rule). |
| Phone and internet | \$298.1^([16](../references.llms.md#ref-reconstruction-costs-active-conflicts)) | 1.8× original cost | Hard to coordinate reconstruction without communications. Ironic. |
| Water and sewage | \$267.8^([16](../references.llms.md#ref-reconstruction-costs-active-conflicts)) | 1.6× original cost | People need water. Bombs do not care. |
| Schools | \$234.5^([16](../references.llms.md#ref-reconstruction-costs-active-conflicts)) | 1.3× original cost | The children who would have attended are also gone. |
| Hospitals | \$165.6^([16](../references.llms.md#ref-reconstruction-costs-active-conflicts)) | 1.9× original cost | The building you need to fix war injuries. Destroyed by the war. |
#### Total Infrastructure Damage: [\$1.88 trillion (90% CI: \$1.65 trillion-\$2.1 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_infrastructure_destruction_conflict)
Replacing a bridge in a war zone costs 1.3-2.1x more than building one in peace. You pay extra because the construction workers keep getting shot at.
## Economic Disruption
### Annual Trade Losses
| What Stopped Working | Annual Loss (Billions) | Why | How Long |
|----|----|----|----|
| Ships cannot ship | \$247.1^([17](../references.llms.md#ref-world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict)) | The ocean has bombs in it | 3.2 years avg |
| Factories cannot factory | \$186.8^([17](../references.llms.md#ref-world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict)) | The parts come from the place you bombed | 2.8 years avg |
| Energy prices go insane | \$124.7^([17](../references.llms.md#ref-world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict)) | Oil comes from places with wars (coincidence) | 1.9 years avg |
| Money stops meaning things | \$57.4^([17](../references.llms.md#ref-world-bank-trade-disruption-conflict)) | Currency traders panic (this is their job) | 4.1 years avg |
#### Total Trade Disruption: [\$616 billion (90% CI: \$526 billion-\$716 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_trade_disruption_conflict) annually
## Indirect Costs
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-the-ghost-in-the-machine-indirect-costs-bw-academic.jpg)
The bullets are cheap. The lost hospitals are expensive. You only count the bullets.
### Opportunity Cost: What Else You Could Have Bought
#### Conversion Table (2023 Dollars)
| Alternative Investment | Global War Spending Could Fund | Mathematical Conversion | Annual Benefit |
|----|----|----|----|
| Medical Research | 40.3 years of current spending | [\$2.72 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_military_spending_annual_2024) ÷ [\$67.5 billion (95% CI: \$54 billion-\$81 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_med_research_spending) = 40.3 | WHO research expenditure^([18](../references.llms.md#ref-who-research-expenditure)) |
| Global Education Access | 90.6 years of universal coverage | [\$2.72 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_military_spending_annual_2024) ÷ \$30B^([19](../references.llms.md#ref-unesco-education-for-all-cost)) = 90.6 | UNESCO Education for All^([20](../references.llms.md#ref-unesco-education-for-all)) |
| Poverty Eradication | 2.7 complete eliminations | [\$2.72 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_military_spending_annual_2024) ÷ \$1,000B^([21](../references.llms.md#ref-world-bank-poverty-eradication-cost)) = 2.7 | World Bank extreme poverty estimates |
#### You Chose the Worst One
Economic multipliers per dollar spent:
- Military spending: [0.6x (95% CI: 0.4x-0.9x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-economic_multiplier_military_spending)x
- Infrastructure: [1.6x](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-economic_multiplier_infrastructure_investment)x
- Education: [2.1x](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-economic_multiplier_education_investment)x
- Healthcare: [4.3x (95% CI: 3x-6x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-economic_multiplier_healthcare_investment)x
You chose the lowest multiplier. Every year. On purpose.
$$ \begin{aligned} \text{Alternative GDP Growth} = {} & (\text{Military Spending} \times \text{Alternative Multiplier}) \\ & - (\text{Military Spending} \times \text{Military Multiplier}) \end{aligned} $$
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-gdp-multiplier-comparison-bw-academic.jpg)
Healthcare returns 4.3x per dollar. Military returns 0.6x per dollar. You invested in the one that loses money because it has cooler explosions.
$$ \text{Alternative GDP Growth} = (\$2.7\text{T} \times 1.6) - (\$2.7\text{T} \times 0.6) = \$2.7\text{T} $$
We lose \$2.7 trillion in growth. Every year. Forever.
### Long-term Human Costs
#### Veteran Healthcare
| Cost Category | 2023 Spending | 20-Year Projection | Mathematical Model |
|----|----|----|----|
| PTSD Treatment | \$47.2B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | \$944B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | Current cases × treatment duration × cost inflation |
| Physical Rehabilitation | \$63.8B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | \$1,276B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | Injury complexity index × technology advancement costs |
| Disability Compensation | \$89.1B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | \$1,782B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | Disability ratings × benefit schedules × actuarial projections |
| Total Veteran Care | \$200.1B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | \$4,002B^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | Composite of above factors |
Healthcare costs inflate at 3.5-4.6% annually^([23](../references.llms.md#ref-historical-healthcare-inflation-rate)). You are still paying for Vietnam. Your grandchildren will pay for Iraq.
#### Refugees
108.4 million displaced^([24](../references.llms.md#ref-unhcr-forcibly-displaced-2023)). \$1,384/year per person^([25](../references.llms.md#ref-unhcr-refugee-support-cost)) to keep them alive in tents. **\$150.0 billion** annually.
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-refugee-support-the-mathematics-of-displacement-bw-academic.jpg)
108.4 million refugees. \$1,384 per person to house them. Total cost: less than three weeks of global military spending. You chose the missiles.
Each refugee also loses \$23,400 in earning potential annually^([26](../references.llms.md#ref-refugee-lost-earning-potential)), adding **\$2.5 trillion in lost GDP**. These are doctors, engineers, teachers, and farmers standing in line for water.
### Environmental Destruction
#### What You Did to Your Own Planet
| Environmental Impact | Damage Value | Restoration Cost | Time to Recovery |
|----|----|----|----|
| You poisoned the dirt | \$34.7B^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | \$69.4B^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | 15-30 years |
| You poisoned the water | \$28.3B^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | \$56.6B^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | 8-25 years |
| You poisoned the air | \$21.9B^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | \$43.8B^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | 2-8 years |
| You killed the animals | \$15.1B^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | Irreplaceable | Forever |
**Total Environmental Damage: [\$100 billion (95% CI: \$70 billion-\$140 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_environmental_damage_conflict) annually**
The biodiversity loss is listed as “irreplaceable.” You have not invented un-extinction yet.
### The AI Arms Race
You are now in a race to build the smartest machine possible and hand it a weapon.
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-the-existential-overdraft-the-ai-arms-race-bw-academic.jpg)
You’re building robot soldiers that think faster than you and can’t explain why they shoot. This might be bad. A 1% safety tax could fix it. You haven’t implemented the tax.
The risks:
- **Autonomous Decisions:** AI systems making lethal choices without a human checking.
- **Blinding Speed:** Escalation from disagreement to global destruction in minutes, before a human can find the right button.
- **Opaque Logic:** You do not know why an AI makes choices. Neither does it.
Take 1% of the money you plan to spend on killer robots and fund research on how to keep them from killing you. Insurance against your own cleverness.
## The Total Cost of Organized Violence
### The Full Receipt (2024)
#### What You Spent on Purpose
| Category | Amount (Billions) | Percentage | Daily Rate |
|----------------------------|-------------------|------------|--------------|
| Military Expenditure | \$2,718.0 | 36.0% | \$7.45B |
| Human Life Losses | \$2,446.0 | 32.4% | \$6.70B |
| Infrastructure Destruction | \$1,875.0 | 24.9% | \$5.14B |
| Trade Disruption | \$616.0 | 8.2% | \$1.69B |
| **Direct Subtotal** | **\$7,655.0** | **100%** | **\$20.97B** |
#### What You Lost by Accident
| Category | Amount (Billions) | Percentage | Daily Rate |
|----|----|----|----|
| Lost Economic Growth | \$2,718.0 | 76.4% | \$7.45B |
| Veteran Healthcare | \$200.1^([22](../references.llms.md#ref-veteran-healthcare-cost-projections)) | 5.6% | \$0.55B |
| Refugee Support | \$150.0^([24](../references.llms.md#ref-unhcr-forcibly-displaced-2023)) | 4.2% | \$0.41B |
| Environmental Damage | \$100.0^([27](../references.llms.md#ref-environmental-cost-of-war)) | 2.8% | \$0.27B |
| Psychological Impact | \$232.0^([28](../references.llms.md#ref-psychological-impact-war-cost)) | 6.3% | \$0.64B |
| Lost Human Capital | \$300.0^([1](../references.llms.md#ref-lost-human-capital-war-cost)) | 8.1% | \$0.82B |
| **Indirect Subtotal** | **\$3,700.1** | **100%** | **\$10.14B** |
#### The Number
$$ \begin{gathered} Cost_{war,total} \\ = Cost_{war,direct} + Cost_{war,indirect} \\ = \$7.66T + \$3.7T \\ = \$11.4T \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Cost_{war,direct} \\ = Loss_{life,conflict} + Damage_{infra,total} \\ + Disruption_{trade} + Spending_{mil} \\ = \$2.45T + \$1.88T + \$616B + \$2.72T \\ = \$7.66T \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Loss_{life,conflict} \\ = Cost_{combat,human} + Cost_{state,human} \\ + Cost_{terror,human} \\ = \$2.34T + \$27B + \$83B \\ = \$2.45T \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Cost_{combat,human} \\ = Deaths_{combat} \times VSL \\ = 234{,}000 \times \$10M \\ = \$2.34T \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Cost_{state,human} \\ = Deaths_{state} \times VSL \\ = 2{,}700 \times \$10M \\ = \$27B \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Cost_{terror,human} \\ = Deaths_{terror} \times VSL \\ = 8{,}300 \times \$10M \\ = \$83B \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Damage_{infra,total} \\ = Damage_{comms} + Damage_{edu} + Damage_{energy} \\ + Damage_{health} + Damage_{transport} + Damage_{water} \\ = \$298B + \$234B + \$422B + \$166B + \$487B + \$268B \\ = \$1.88T \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Disruption_{trade} \\ = Disruption_{currency} + Disruption_{energy} \\ + Disruption_{shipping} + Disruption_{supply} \\ = \$57.4B + \$125B + \$247B + \$187B \\ = \$616B \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} Cost_{war,indirect} \\ = Damage_{env} + Loss_{growth,mil} + Loss_{capital,conflict} \\ + Cost_{psych} + Cost_{refugee} + Cost_{vet} \\ = \$100B + \$2.72T + \$300B + \$232B + \$150B + \$200B \\ = \$3.7T \end{gathered} $$
**\$11.4 trillion. Every year.**
\$1,419 per person per year. Including babies. Over an 80-year lifetime: **\$113,551** per person. A car, a year of college, or a down payment on a house. You got bombs instead.
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-lifetime-cost-vs-personal-assets-bw-academic.jpg)
War costs you \$113,551 in your lifetime. That’s a car, or college, or a down payment on a house. You got none of those things. You got bombs in countries you can’t pronounce.
### For Context
12.7% of global GDP^([29](../references.llms.md#ref-global-gdp-2023)). 168x the WHO’s budget^([30](../references.llms.md#ref-who-budget-comparison)). Enough to end extreme poverty 11.4 times over^([21](../references.llms.md#ref-world-bank-poverty-eradication-cost)).
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-the-grotesque-mathematics-of-misallocation-bw-academic.jpg)
Each missile costs the same as 50 teachers’ salaries. You have many missiles. You have large classrooms.
### The Running Tab
[\$11.4 trillion (90% CI: \$9.96 trillion-\$12.9 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_annual_direct_indirect_war_cost) per year is just the current bill. It does not include the historical tab, which is enormous, unpaid, and still accruing interest in the form of dead people.
The United States alone (one country, on one planet, in one unremarkable solar system) has spent the following on its named wars: the Civil War (\$112B), World War I (\$468B), World War II (\$5.7T), Korea (\$478B), Vietnam (\$1T), and the post-9/11 wars (\$8T). That is over \$16 trillion on wars with names^([31](../references.llms.md#ref-crs-war-costs-2010),[32](../references.llms.md#ref-costsofwar2023)). The ones without names cost extra. And this is just America’s share. Everyone else was also buying bullets.
The total tab for everyone, across all of recorded history, is approximately **\$180 trillion** in constant 2024 dollars.[^1]
Three-quarters of that was spent after 1945, during what your historians call “the long peace.” It is the most expensive peace in history. The United States alone now spends [30.6x](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-us_military_spending_current_vs_prewar_multiplier) what it spent in 1939, in constant 2024 dollars, to defend itself against threats meaningfully smaller than Adolf Hitler. The 2024 bill alone hit a record [\$2.72 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_military_spending_annual_2024), up 9.4% in a single year, the steepest increase SIPRI has ever recorded^([3](../references.llms.md#ref-sipri-milex-2024)). You are not winding down. You are warming up.
To put \$180 trillion in perspective: one year of modern military spending (\$2.7 trillion) exceeds the entire military expenditure of the Roman Empire across five centuries. And \$180 trillion divided by [\$4.5 billion (95% CI: \$3 billion-\$6 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_government_clinical_trials_spending_annual) per year equals **40,000 years** of government-funded clinical trials. Your species has been running clinical trials for about 80 years. You could have funded every clinical trial you will ever run, for the next 500 lifetimes, with the money you spent killing each other. Instead, you have a very large collection of spent shell casings and 6,650 diseases with zero FDA-approved treatments.
The full receipt, and the money printer that funded most of it, is in [Your Money Comes From a Building](../../knowledge/economics/central-banks.llms.md).
### The Cumulative Damage Report: Everything You Broke Since 1900
The annual bill is \$11.4 trillion. That is the current invoice. You have been running a tab since 1900. The tab is worse.
| Conflict | Period | Property Destruction (2024 USD) | What Was Destroyed |
|----|----|----|----|
| World War I | 1914-1918 | ~\$5 trillion | Northern France, Belgium, Eastern Europe; 10.9% of combined US/UK/France GDP consumed^([33](../references.llms.md#ref-harrison-economics-wwii)) |
| World War II | 1939-1945 | ~\$23 trillion | 70% of European industrial infrastructure; 1,710 Soviet cities; 30% of Poland’s buildings^([33](../references.llms.md#ref-harrison-economics-wwii)) |
| Korean War | 1950-1953 | ~\$500 billion | 85% of buildings destroyed; most of Seoul flattened, rebuilt, then used as a Samsung factory |
| Vietnam War | 1955-1975 | ~\$1 trillion | 10 million hectares of forest poisoned; you are still cleaning it up 50 years later |
| Post-9/11 Wars | 2001-present | ~\$8 trillion | Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya infrastructure^([32](../references.llms.md#ref-costsofwar2023)) |
| Other conflicts | 1900-present | ~\$5-10 trillion | China civil war, Iran-Iraq, Congo, Yugoslavia, Ethiopia, Ukraine |
**Cumulative property destruction: roughly [\$45 trillion (95% CI: \$30 trillion-\$60 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_property_destruction_since_1900).** Enough to rebuild every school, hospital, and road on the planet. Twice.
Add another **[\$5 trillion (95% CI: \$2 trillion-\$10 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_environmental_destruction_since_1900) in cumulative environmental destruction**: nuclear test sites that will be radioactive for millennia, 80 million land mines still in the ground, Agent Orange contamination across 4.8 million acres of Vietnam (cleanup cost so far: \$390 million, with decades to go), the Zone Rouge in France still too poisoned to inhabit a century after WWI, Gulf War oil fires that burned 600 wells for ten months, depleted uranium contamination across Iraq and the Balkans, and 1.3 billion tonnes of military CO2 emissions from US operations alone between 2001 and 2018^([34](../references.llms.md#ref-brown-costs-of-war-environmental)). You poisoned the house, then moved to another room and poisoned that one too.
### The Brain Drain: Professionals Killed Since 1900
Approximately [310 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_deaths_since_1900) people have been killed by wars, genocides, and policy-induced famines since 1900.[^2] That is a number. Here is what is inside the number.
Scientists and engineers make up about 5% of the modern labor force^([37](../references.llms.md#ref-nsf-se-workforce-2018)). In the early-to-mid 20th century, the share was lower (roughly 0.1% scientists, 0.2% engineers, 0.3% physicians, 0.4% nurses, 1% teachers). Apply those workforce percentages to [310 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_deaths_since_1900) dead:
| Profession | Workforce Share | Estimated Killed | What They Would Have Done |
|----|----|----|----|
| Scientists and researchers | ~0.1% | ~310,000 | Discovered things |
| Physicians | ~0.3% | ~930,000 | Kept people alive |
| Engineers | ~0.2% | ~620,000 | Built things that work |
| Nurses and midwives | ~0.4% | ~1,240,000 | Delivered care (and babies) |
| Teachers and professors | ~1.0% | ~3,100,000 | Trained all of the above |
| Skilled tradespeople | ~3.0% | ~9,300,000 | Rebuilt what bombs destroyed |
| **Total professional class** | **~5%** | **~15,500,000** | **Made civilization function** |
These are *conservative* estimates because they assume professionals died at the same rate as the general population. They did not. Educated people were *disproportionately* targeted. The Khmer Rouge executed anyone wearing glasses. The Nazis murdered a third of the world’s Jewish population, which included a wildly disproportionate share of Europe’s physicists, physicians, and mathematicians. Stalin’s purges targeted engineers and academics. Mao’s Cultural Revolution sent professors to labor camps. Iraq lost thousands of scientists and doctors after 2003. Every authoritarian regime in history has discovered the same insight: educated people ask inconvenient questions. The solution, apparently, is murder.
Three hundred thousand scientists. Nine hundred thousand doctors. How many cures died with them? How many diseases would already be eradicated if those 310,000 researchers had lived to finish their work? You cannot calculate a counterfactual. But you can note that Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin because he happened to survive World War I. One scientist, one accidental discovery, one billion lives saved. You killed 310,000 others who never got the chance.
### The Children
Of the [310 million deaths (95% CI: 200 million deaths-340 million deaths)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_deaths_since_1900) since 1900, approximately [33% (95% CI: 25%-40%)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_child_death_pct) were children under 18: roughly [102 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_children_killed_since_1900).
$$ \begin{gathered} Deaths_{war,child} \\ = Deaths_{war,1900} \times Pct_{war,child} \\ = 310M \times 33\% \\ = 102M \end{gathered} $$
That percentage is not uniform across categories. It varies by how you kill people:
| Category | Estimated Deaths | Child Share | Why |
|----|----|----|----|
| Combat | ~37M | ~3% | Armies recruit adults (mostly) |
| Civilian direct killing | ~55M | ~35% | Children are where the bombs land |
| Genocide and democide | ~100M | ~33% | Entire populations targeted, children proportional to demographics |
| Policy-induced famine | ~118M | ~60% | Children under 5 are the majority of famine deaths^([38](../references.llms.md#ref-de-waal-famine-child-mortality-2018)) |
Children under five alone constitute 50-67% of all famine deaths^([38](../references.llms.md#ref-de-waal-famine-child-mortality-2018)). The Great Leap Forward, the Holodomor, the Bengal famine: in each case, the smallest bodies failed first. Add children aged 5-17, and famine alone accounts for roughly 70 million dead children. Nearly 90% of war deaths in the 21st century have been civilians, a significant number of whom were children^([39](../references.llms.md#ref-sever-wars-children-2022)).
These [102 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_children_killed_since_1900) children will not grow up to be the 310,000 scientists and 930,000 physicians listed in the table above. They will not grow up at all.
### The Stolen Years: What the Dead Were Worth
The [310 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_deaths_since_1900) dead were not just names on memorials. They were years of life, unlived. Each death stole an average of [27](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_avg_years_life_lost_per_death) years of remaining life (soldiers averaged 23 years old at death; civilian casualties skewed older; weighted average age at death roughly 28, against a mid-century life expectancy of 55).
$$ \begin{gathered} YLL_{war,total} \\ = Deaths_{war,1900} \times YLL_{war} \\ = 310M \times 27 \\ = 8.37B \end{gathered} $$
[8.37 billion life-years (90% CI: 4.92 billion life-years-10.4 billion life-years)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_life_years_lost_since_1900). To visualize that: if you gave every stolen year its own second on a clock, the clock would run for 171 years.
What are those years worth? The standard economic value of a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) is [\$150,000 (90% CI: \$100,384-\$198,679)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-standard_economic_qaly_value_usd)^([40](../references.llms.md#ref-hhs-vsl-2024)). Multiply:
$$ \begin{gathered} V_{war,QALY} \\ = YLL_{war,total} \times Value_{QALY} \\ = 8.37B \times \$150K \\ = \$1260T \end{gathered} $$\
where:\
$$ \begin{gathered} YLL_{war,total} \\ = Deaths_{war,1900} \times YLL_{war} \\ = 310M \times 27 \\ = 8.37B \end{gathered} $$
**[\$1.26 quadrillion (90% CI: \$644 trillion-\$1.71 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_qaly_value_lost_since_1900).**
You spent [\$170 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-cumulative_military_spending_fed_era) on military. The lives you destroyed were worth [\$1.26 quadrillion (90% CI: \$644 trillion-\$1.71 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_qaly_value_lost_since_1900). You spent \$1 on killing and destroyed over \$7 in human value. This is the actual return on investment for organized violence: **negative 739%.**
No other investment in human history has a worse ROI.
### The Compound Opportunity Cost
Most estimates just count the redirected budget. But a world without war since 1900 is not a world that merely moved money around. It is a world where eight compounding channels of growth were never interrupted:
| Channel | What compounds | Growth boost | Evidence |
|----|----|----|----|
| 1\. Productive reallocation | Murder money becomes medicine money | +0.8-1.5pp | Costa Rica abolished its army; GDP growth jumped 0.5-0.8pp for 60 years^([41](../references.llms.md#ref-costa-rica-peace-dividend)) |
| 2\. Preserved capital stock | Factories not bombed keep producing | +0.2-0.4pp | Each 1pp of military/GDP costs ~1.1pp of growth^([42](../references.llms.md#ref-military-spending-growth-impact)) |
| 3\. 310M lives + descendants | Dead people cannot buy things or invent them | +0.2-0.4pp | Their unborn children and grandchildren add 500M-1B people |
| 4\. No trade disruption | Ships ship, trucks truck, refugees work | +0.1-0.3pp | 108M refugees standing in line for water instead of practicing medicine |
| 5\. No poisoned land | Farms produce food instead of landmine casualties | +0.1-0.2pp | Contaminated soil produces nothing for 15-30 years |
| 6\. No Cold War isolation | China opens in 1950, not 1978 | +0.1-0.3pp | Half the world economy was behind a wall for 45 years |
| 7\. No dictators installed | Wars produce Stalins; peace produces democracies | +0.1-0.3pp | Better property rights, less corruption, more investment |
| 8\. Open science | No security clearances or Iron Curtains | +0.05-0.15pp | Scientists who can email each other discover more than scientists who cannot |
| **Stacked total** | **All of the above, compounding** | **+1.65 to 3.55pp** | |
These channels do not merely add. They multiply. Each makes every other channel work better.
Global GDP per capita in 1900: [\$3,150 (90% CI: \$2,314-\$3,963)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_gdp_per_capita_1900). Today: [\$14,375 (90% CI: \$14,081-\$14,682)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_avg_income_2025). Growth rate: 1.23%/year for 124 years. Add the peace channels:
| Scenario | Growth Boost | New Growth Rate | GDP per Capita 2024 | Multiple | Extra per Person |
|----|----|----|----|----|----|
| Budget only (Costa Rica) | +1.0pp | 2.23%/year | \$48,637 | 3.4x richer | +\$34,262/year |
| All channels, low | +1.65pp | 2.88%/year | \$106,730 | 7.4x richer | +\$92,355/year |
| All channels, mid | +2.6pp | 3.83%/year | [\$333,636 (90% CI: \$120,624-\$921,185)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_gdp_per_capita) | [23.2x (90% CI: 8.4x-64x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_income_multiple) richer | \+[\$319,261 (90% CI: \$106,333-\$906,864)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_lost_gdp_per_capita)/year |
| All channels, high | +3.55pp | 4.78%/year | \$1,032,170 | 71.8x richer | +\$1,017,795/year |
**The average person on Earth would earn [\$333,636 (90% CI: \$120,624-\$921,185)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_gdp_per_capita) per year.** The average person in sub-Saharan Africa, who currently earns \$1,800/year, would earn roughly \$42,000. Not from charity. From compound growth that was never interrupted.
3.83% growth is not ambitious. Japan did 7-9% for two decades after dismantling its military. South Korea did 5-7%. Germany did 8%. They started from rubble. A world that never made the rubble would do better.
At mid-range: [\$319,261 (90% CI: \$106,333-\$906,864)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_lost_gdp_per_capita) per person per year times 8 billion people = **[\$2.55 quadrillion (90% CI: \$851 trillion-\$7.24 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_lost_gdp_global) in annual output that does not exist.**
### The Medical Opportunity Cost
The income number above answers one question: how much richer you would be if your species had not spent 124 years optimizing for rubble. The medical question is separate: what would have happened if the murder money had been spent on not dying?
These are different ledgers. The compound peace economy counts growth that never happened. The medical redirect counts trials that never ran. They overlap (medicine money is part of growth), so you do not get to add them together and wave the total around like a flag. Arithmetic does not allow double-counting, even when the numbers are this embarrassing.
Here is the minimal historical medical counterfactual:
| Counterfactual step | Estimate | Meaning |
|----|----|----|
| 1900 treaty | Military spending frozen at [\$66.1 billion (95% CI: \$50 billion-\$90 billion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_1900_freeze_baseline_annual) in real absolute terms | The arms race stops growing, instead of becoming the planet’s most expensive murder subscription. |
| Excess military spending above the 1900 freeze | [29,937 years (90% CI: 22,459 years-43,917 years)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_excess_military_trial_years) of current government clinical-trial spending | The scale is absurd enough that even a badly run trial system would have learned things. |
| Major infectious disease control | [1950 (90% CI: 1922-2020)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_infectious_disease_control_year) | Vaccination, antibiotics, sanitation, vector control, and surveillance arrive earlier and at global scale. |
| Major non-aging disease treatment/control | [1950 (90% CI: 1922-2020)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_nonaging_disease_control_year) | Most cancer, cardiovascular, autoimmune, psychiatric, rare-disease, and metabolic burden has effective prevention, treatment, or control paths. |
| Biological aging control | [1990 (90% CI: 1962-2060)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_aging_control_sensitivity_year) | Exploratory sensitivity only. Included to show what the same trial platform might surface if geroscience became testable at population scale. |
“Control” here means practical prevention, treatment, or functional eradication for most of the burden. It does not mean every pathogen is extinct, every tumor biology is solved, or every human has become an immortal invoice reviewer.
#### Money-Unconstrained Medical Toolchain
The aggressive prosecutor gets a sharper branch. Pretend the defense says, correctly, that trials alone do not buy sequencing, diagnostics, factories, EHRs, AI tooling, surveillance, or the rest of the boring machinery that turns science into medicine. Fine. Reserve \$20 trillion (95% CI: \$5 trillion-\$50 trillion) first for prizes and tool-building. Make it intentionally absurd. Pay every difficult person enough money to become briefly useful.
Then count only what remains. After that reserve, the misallocated war ledger still leaves [\$150 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_net_trial_budget) for pragmatic trials. At [\$929 (95% CI: \$97-\$3,000)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-dfda_pragmatic_trial_cost_per_patient) per patient-slot, that buys [161 billion patient-slots (90% CI: 63.6 billion patient-slots-647 billion patient-slots)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_patient_slots_funded), or [20.2 patient-slots/person (90% CI: 7.99 patient-slots/person-81.2 patient-slots/person)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_patient_slots_per_living_human) for every living human. Patient-slots are not unique people. They are repeated opportunities to test prevention, combination therapy, diagnostics, dosing, repurposing, platform vaccines, and population-scale protocols across time. The claim is not that the planet contained hundreds of billions of spare patients. The claim is that the defendants had enough money to saturate every practical bottleneck and still have trial capacity left over.
Observed toolchain anchors show the scale problem:
| Toolchain anchor | Observed cost |
|----|---:|
| Human Genome Project | [\$2.7 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-medical_toolchain_hgp_cost_usd) |
| NIH CRISPR-related funding, FY2011-FY2018 | [\$3.1 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-medical_toolchain_crispr_nih_funding_2011_2018) |
| BRAIN Initiative planned budget | [\$4.5 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-medical_toolchain_brain_initiative_planned_budget) |
| PCORnet infrastructure funding anchor | [\$325 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-medical_toolchain_pcornet_infrastructure_funding) |
| HITECH EHR incentive estimate | [\$30 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-medical_toolchain_hitech_ehr_incentive_estimated_spending) |
| Operation Warp Speed potential vaccine awards | [\$18 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-medical_toolchain_ows_potential_vaccine_awards) |
| **Observed anchor costs** | **[\$58.6 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-medical_toolchain_observed_anchor_costs)** |
| **Aggressive prosecutor reserve** | **\$20 trillion (95% CI: \$5 trillion-\$50 trillion)** |
The reserve is [341x](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_medical_toolchain_prize_overpay_multiple) the observed anchor costs above. This is the point. The pleading theory does not need Nobel-grade precision. It needs to defeat the excuse that the missing tools made the medical counterfactual impossible. The money was large enough to buy the tools, overpay for the tools, build factories for the tools, and then fund the trials.
The standard objection is that conceptual breakthroughs – DNA structure, oncogenes, cellular senescence – cannot be bought. This is wrong. Breakthroughs are proportional to the number of researchers working on a problem, which is proportional to funding. Watson and Crick did not discover DNA in 1953 because it was scheduled for 1953. Operation Warp Speed compressed a 10-15 year vaccine timeline to 9 months. The Human Genome Project’s 15-year timeline was matched in 3 years by a competitor with better incentives. The rate-limiting factor is not human genius; it is how many humans can afford to practice science.
The model assumes prize-based funding, not NIH grants. Prizes pay for results; grants pay for process and generate paper-factory output nobody applies. Prize structures produce roughly 5-10x more useful output per dollar. The [1950 (90% CI: 1922-2020)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_trial_redirect_disease_pleading_cutoff_year) disease cutoff is therefore conservative.
For the forward-looking version of the same machinery starting now, see [1% Treaty Impact](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html)^([43](../references.llms.md#ref-1-percent-treaty-paper-2025)) ^([44](../references.llms.md#ref-1-pct-treaty-impact-paper-2025)). That chapter estimates what happens if the treaty is adopted today. This section estimates what humanity lost by not doing the obvious version in 1900.
This section is the factual basis for Count Three in [Humanity v. Government](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html). The charge is not “every disease death is your fault.” The charge is “you had the money to run the trials and you spent it on missiles instead.” One is a tantrum. The other is arithmetic.
### The Grand Total: Everything War Has Cost Since 1900
| Category | Estimate (2024 USD) | Method |
|----|----|----|
| Cumulative military spending | [\$170 trillion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-cumulative_military_spending_fed_era) | SIPRI + historical reconstruction |
| Property and infrastructure destruction | [\$45 trillion (95% CI: \$30 trillion-\$60 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_property_destruction_since_1900) | Sum of major conflict estimates |
| Environmental destruction and contamination | [\$5 trillion (95% CI: \$2 trillion-\$10 trillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_environmental_destruction_since_1900) | Annual estimates x century + catastrophic events |
| QALY value of lives lost | [\$1.26 quadrillion (90% CI: \$644 trillion-\$1.71 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_qaly_value_lost_since_1900) | [310 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_deaths_since_1900) deaths x [27](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_avg_years_life_lost_per_death) years x [\$150,000 (90% CI: \$100,384-\$198,679)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-standard_economic_qaly_value_usd)/QALY |
| Compound opportunity cost (lost annual GDP) | [\$2.55 quadrillion (90% CI: \$851 trillion-\$7.24 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_lost_gdp_global)/year | 8 channels stacked, 124 years compounded |
| **Historical sunk cost** | **[\$1.48 quadrillion (90% CI: \$862 trillion-\$1.93 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_total_cost_since_1900)** | Military + destruction + lives |
| **Ongoing annual loss** | **[\$2.55 quadrillion (90% CI: \$851 trillion-\$7.24 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_lost_gdp_global)/year** | Compound growth penalty |
| **Per capita impact** | **[23.2x (90% CI: 8.4x-64x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_income_multiple) richer** | Every person, everywhere |
Historical tab: [\$1.48 quadrillion (90% CI: \$862 trillion-\$1.93 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_total_cost_since_1900). The compound opportunity cost dwarfs it: [\$2.55 quadrillion (90% CI: \$851 trillion-\$7.24 quadrillion)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_lost_gdp_global) in lost annual output, every year, growing.
**The average person on Earth would be [23.2x (90% CI: 8.4x-64x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_income_multiple) richer.** [\$333,636 (90% CI: \$120,624-\$921,185)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-war_counterfactual_gdp_per_capita)/year instead of [\$14,375 (90% CI: \$14,081-\$14,682)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_avg_income_2025).
### Hidden Costs of War
[](../../assets/images/cost-of-war/cost-of-war-section-hidden-costs-of-war-bw-academic.jpg)
War destroys the hospital. Then there’s no hospital to treat the war wounds. Then people die of preventable diseases. Then the economy collapses. Then you have another war. It’s very efficient.
Each consequence causes the next:
- Cities destroyed. Expensive to rebuild.
- Children miss school. Grow up to be uneducated adults who start more wars.
- Hospitals destroyed. The building you need to fix war injuries was destroyed by the war.
- Farms poisoned. Hungry people fight.
- Millions get PTSD. Cannot work. Need therapy for decades.
## The Other Receipt: When Governments Kill Their Own People
Everything above only counts what governments spend killing *other* countries’ people. It does not include returns on domestic investment.
Political scientist R.J. Rummel spent his career counting what he called “democide”: the murder of unarmed civilians by their own governments. Not soldiers. Not enemy combatants. Civilians. The people governments are supposed to protect. His final estimate: [262 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-democide_total_20th_century) people murdered by governments in the 20th century alone^([35](../references.llms.md#ref-rummel-death-by-government)). That excludes all battle deaths in wars. This is just the bonus killing.
To be clear: that is more than every war death in the same century combined.
Here is the itemized receipt, sorted by body count:
| Regime | Period | Estimated Deaths | What Happened |
|----|----|----|----|
| China (Mao Zedong) | 1949-1976 | 45-78 million | Great Leap Forward famine (policy-induced), Cultural Revolution, land reform campaigns |
| Soviet Union (Stalin era) | 1924-1953 | 20+ million | Gulag system, Ukrainian famine (Holodomor), Great Purge, forced collectivization |
| Nazi Germany | 1933-1945 | 21 million | Holocaust (6M Jews), plus Slavs, Roma, disabled, POWs, political prisoners |
| Imperial Japan | 1937-1945 | 6 million | Nanjing massacre, forced labor, biological experiments, civilian massacres across Asia |
| Cambodia (Khmer Rouge) | 1975-1979 | 2 million | “Year Zero” forced agrarian revolution; ~25% of population killed in 4 years |
| Ottoman Empire | 1915-1923 | 1.5-2 million | Armenian Genocide, Assyrian and Greek genocides |
| Pakistan (Bangladesh) | 1971 | 1-3 million | Bangladesh Liberation War atrocities |
| Ethiopia (Mengistu) | 1977-1991 | 1-2 million | Red Terror, forced resettlement, engineered famine |
| Indonesia | 1965-1966 | 500,000-1 million | Anti-communist purge |
| Rwanda | 1994 | 800,000-1 million | Tutsi genocide; 100 days, mostly machetes |
| North Korea | 1948-present | 1-3.5 million | Political prison camps, forced starvation, purges |
| Iraq (Saddam Hussein) | 1979-2003 | 250,000-500,000 | Anfal campaign, Marsh Arab destruction, political killings |
| Yugoslavia (Milosevic) | 1991-1999 | 130,000-200,000 | Srebrenica massacre, ethnic cleansing campaigns |
This table only includes the largest cases. Rummel’s full dataset documents over 200 regimes^([45](../references.llms.md#ref-rummel-statistics-of-democide)). The complete list is longer than this chapter.
Since 2000, the accounting continues: Darfur (~300,000 killed between 2003 and 2008)^([46](../references.llms.md#ref-darfur-genocide-death-toll)), Syria (306,887 civilians killed in the first decade of conflict, with government forces responsible for roughly 91% of civilian casualties)^([47](../references.llms.md#ref-syria-civilian-deaths-government)), Myanmar’s Rohingya (~24,000 killed by state forces since 2017)^([48](../references.llms.md#ref-rohingya-deaths-estimate)), and others. No Rummel-style global update exists for the 21st century, but the running total since 1913 conservatively exceeds 263 million.[^3]
A few observations from an outside perspective:
- Communist regimes account for the largest share: 100-148+ million, depending on how you count famine deaths caused by policy. Communism did not just fail as economics. It failed as not-murder.
- These are *estimates*. Governments that murder their own citizens tend not to keep meticulous records. In many cases, the records were destroyed by the same people who created the bodies. The true number is almost certainly higher.
- Every regime on this list had an army. The army was frequently the instrument of democide. You are instructing these institutions to redirect 1% of their budget. One percent. From the machinery they have historically used to murder [262 million](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-democide_total_20th_century) of their own unarmed citizens.
The governments you are trying to negotiate with have, on average, killed more of their own people than foreign enemies have. The call is coming from inside the house. It has always been coming from inside the house.
This is not an argument against government. It is an argument for better incentive structures. The [1% treaty](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html)^([44](../references.llms.md#ref-1-pct-treaty-impact-paper-2025)) does not ask governments to be moral. It directs them to be slightly less expensive at killing. The difference between a government that spends 100% of its military budget on potential murder and one that spends 99% is [\$27.2 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-treaty_annual_funding) per year redirected to not-murder. That is the entire instruction.
1\.
Think by Numbers. Lost human capital due to war (\$270B annually). *Think by Numbers* (2021)
*Lost human capital from war: \$300B annually (economic impact of losing skilled/productive individuals to conflict) Broader conflict/violence cost: \$14T/year globally 1.4M violent deaths/year; conflict holds back economic development, causes instability, widens inequality, erodes human capital 2002: 48.4M DALYs lost from 1.6M violence deaths = \$151B economic value (2000 USD) Economic toll includes: commodity prices, inflation, supply chain disruption, declining output, lost human capital Additional sources: https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/ \| https://www.weforum.org/stories/2021/02/war-violence-costs-each-human-5-a-day/ \| https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19115548/*
.
2\.
Leitenberg, M. *Deaths in Wars and Conflicts in the 20th Century*. (2006)
*Comprehensive accounting of deaths from wars, conflicts, genocides, and policy-induced famines in the 20th century. Central estimate: approximately 231 million people killed or allowed to die by human decision. Includes combat deaths, civilian casualties, democide, and conflict-induced famine.*
3\.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. [Trends in world military expenditure, 2024](https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024). (2025).
4\.
World Health Organization. WHO global health estimates 2024. *World Health Organization* (2024)
*Comprehensive mortality and morbidity data by cause, age, sex, country, and year Global mortality: 55-60 million deaths annually Lives saved by modern medicine (vaccines, cardiovascular drugs, oncology): 12M annually (conservative aggregate) Leading causes of death: Cardiovascular disease (17.9M), Cancer (10.3M), Respiratory disease (4.0M) Note: Baseline data for regulatory mortality analysis. Conservative estimate of pharmaceutical impact based on WHO immunization data (4.5M/year from vaccines) + cardiovascular interventions (3.3M/year) + oncology (1.5M/year) + other therapies. Additional sources: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates*
.
5\.
Our World in Data. Global armed forces size and average salary. *Our World in Data: Military Personnel & Spending* (2024)
*Largest forces: China (2.0M active), India (1.4M), Russia (1.3M active, 3.5M total), US (1.3M active) Global military spending 2024: US \$1T (next 12 countries combined); NATO 32 members: \$1.5T (55% of world) Military spending per personnel: Tracked by SIPRI, World Bank (includes personnel, O&M, procurement, R&D, infrastructure, aid) Average varies widely: US military much higher per-personnel spending than most countries Note: Specific "28.4M global armed forces" and "\$24,000 average salary" not confirmed in sources. Data available but highly variable by country. Major forces total 10M+ personnel among largest militaries Additional sources: https://ourworldindata.org/military-personnel-spending \| https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.P1 \| https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/2504_fs_milex_2024.pdf*
.
6\.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. [Trends in world military expenditure, 2023](https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023). (2024).
7\.
USAFacts. NATO o&m ratios for global spending. *USAFacts: US Military Spending* (2024)
*Operations & Maintenance (O&M): 38-50% of military spending US FY2024: O&M cost \$332B (38% of military spending), up from 28% in 1974 2005-2015 trend: O&M represented 40-50% of DoD total budget NATO 2024: \$1.47T total spending across 32 member countries; US \$967B (66%), European members \$454B (30%) NATO equipment investment guideline: At least 20% of military expenditures for major equipment/R&D Additional sources: https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-does-the-us-spend-on-the-military/ \| https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52156 \| https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm \| https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293301/combined-military-expenditures-nato/*
.
8\.
Wikipedia. Number of major global military facilities (4,435). *Wikipedia: List of American Military Installations*
*US military bases worldwide: 750-877 (varies by source/definition) Conservative count: 128 military bases in 55 countries/territories (Feb 2025) Broader count: 750+ bases in 80+ countries; some sources cite 877 Large bases (\>4 hectares or \>\$10M, \>200 personnel): 439 (60% of US foreign bases) Small bases/"Lily Pads" (\<4 hectares or \<\$10M): Remaining 40% Other nations: At least 18 other nations operate foreign military bases; NATO countries (France, UK): +200 locations Note: "4,435" not found in sources. US operates 750-877 bases overseas. May include domestic + all nations’ bases combined, but specific figure not verified Additional sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_military_installations \| https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-every-known-u-s-military-base-overseas/ \| https://worldbeyondwar.org/military-empires/*
.
9\.
US Government Info. Intelligence spending as percentage of military budgets. *US Government Info: Cost of Intelligence*
*US: Military-related budget lines (DoE, State Dept, National Intelligence Program) = 11% of US spending (2024) Intelligence funding: Grew faster than military when military spending increased; decreased slower when military spending decreased Historical trend: Intelligence funding reached level 80% above 1980 baseline US National Intelligence Program + Military Intelligence Program ≈ 10-11% of total military-related spending Additional sources: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-INTELLIGENCE/html/int017.html \| https://sgp.fas.org/crs/intel/R44381.pdf \| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_intelligence_budget*
.
10\.
EPA. EPA value of statistical life (\$9.6M). *EPA: Mortality Risk Valuation* (2017)
*EPA 2010 Guidelines: \$7.9M (2008 dollars) → \$9.7M (2013 dollars/income adjusted) Current EPA VSL: \$10 million (highest among federal agencies) Based on 1997 Clean Air Act analysis; updated for inflation/income but not methodology Uses wage-risk literature (21 studies) and stated preference studies (5 studies) Used in cost-benefit analyses for environmental, health, and safety regulations Note: \$9.6-9.7M represents EPA’s VSL with inflation/income adjustments. Base methodology hasn’t been updated since 1997 Additional sources: https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/mortality-risk-valuation \| https://www.rff.org/publications/working-papers/revisiting-the-environmental-protection-agencys-value-of-statistical-life/ \| https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2017-12/documents/ee-0483_all.pdf*
.
11\.
World Bank. *Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains*. (2020).
12\.
DOT. DOT value of statistical life (\$13.6M). *DOT: VSL Guidance 2024* (2024)
*Current VSL (2024): \$13.7 million (updated from \$13.6M) Used in cost-benefit analyses for transportation regulations and infrastructure Methodology updated in 2013 guidance, adjusted annually for inflation and real income VSL represents aggregate willingness to pay for safety improvements that reduce fatalities by one Note: DOT has published VSL guidance periodically since 1993. Current \$13.7M reflects 2024 inflation/income adjustments Additional sources: https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis \| https://www.transportation.gov/regulations/economic-values-used-in-analysis*
.
13\.
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. [Armed conflict location & event data project (ACLED)](https://acleddata.com/). (2025).
14\.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). [Global terrorism database (GTD)](https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/). (2022).
15\.
Uppsala University. Number of armed conflicts since 1945. *Uppsala University*
*The AKUF dataset documents 218 wars and violent conflicts since 1945. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 40 armed conflicts in 2014 (highest since 1999, with 11 defined as wars). Peak year 1991 saw 51 active conflicts. Additional sources: https://ucdp.uu.se/ \| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uppsala_Conflict_Data_Program*
.
16\.
IMF. Reconstruction costs from active conflicts. *IMF: Cost of Conflict* (2017)
*Individual conflict examples: Libya, Syria, Yemen \$300B combined (World Bank) Syria alone: \$250B-\$1T estimates Ukraine: \>€500B reconstruction costs Gaza: \$18.5B infrastructure damage Global conflict/violence cost: \$14.3T/year (2016, includes military spending, security, losses) Note: Specific "\$1,875B for 47 conflicts" figure not verified in sources Additional sources: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2017/12/imus.htm \| https://www.weforum.org/stories/2018/01/conflict-costs-global-economy-14-trillion-a-year/ \| https://fortune.com/2022/04/21/ukraine-reconstruction-cost-rebuild-economists-plan-russia-foot-trillion-bill/*
.
17\.
World Bank. World bank trade disruption cost from conflict. *World Bank*
*Estimated \$616B annual cost from conflict-related trade disruption. World Bank research shows civil war costs an average developing country 30 years of GDP growth, with 20 years needed for trade to return to pre-war levels. Trade disputes analysis shows tariff escalation could reduce global exports by up to \$674 billion. Additional sources: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict \| https://www.nber.org/papers/w11565 \| http://blogs.worldbank.org/en/trade/impacts-global-trade-and-income-current-trade-disputes*
.
18\.
World Health Organization. [Global observatory on health research and development](https://www.who.int/observatories/global-observatory-on-health-research-and-development). (2025).
19\.
UNESCO. UNESCO cost for universal education coverage. *UNESCO* (2023)
*The largest financing gap is in sub-Saharan Africa: \$70 billion per year. An additional \$77 billion is needed annually for African countries to reach their national education targets and provide quality education for all. Additional sources: https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/04/1135697 \| https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000192186*
.
20\.
UNESCO. [Education](https://en.unesco.org/themes/education). (2025).
21\.
Global Policy Journal. World bank cost to eradicate extreme poverty. *Global Policy Journal* (2024)
*Jeffrey Sachs estimated \$175 billion per year for 20 years (less than 1% of combined income of richest countries). Recent UNU-WIDER research: \$70B/year for extreme poverty (\$2.15/day threshold) or \$325B/year for absolute poverty (\$3.65/day). This is only 0.1-0.6% of OECD high-income countries’ GNI. Additional sources: https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/25/07/2024/new-estimates-cost-ending-poverty \| https://borgenproject.org/how-much-does-it-cost-to-end-poverty/*
.
22\.
VA. Veteran healthcare cost projections. *VA* (2026)
*VA budget: \$441.3B requested for FY 2026 (10% increase). Disability compensation: \$165.6B in FY 2024 for 6.7M veterans. PACT Act projected to increase spending by \$300B between 2022-2031. Costs under Toxic Exposures Fund: \$20B (2024), \$30.4B (2025), \$52.6B (2026). Additional sources: https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf \| https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45615 \| https://www.legion.org/information-center/news/veterans-healthcare/2025/june/va-budget-tops-400-billion-for-2025-from-higher-spending-on-mandated-benefits-medical-care*
.
23\.
US Inflation Calculator. Historical healthcare inflation rate (6.2%). *US Inflation Calculator: Health Care 1948-2025* (1948)
*Long-term average (1935-2025): 4.59% annual (per Consumer Price Index for Medical Care, BLS) 2000-2023: 3.5% average annual medical care cost inflation Medical Care Price Index (MCPI): 3.7% compound annual growth (past 2 decades) vs 2.6% for Personal Health Care (PHC) & PCE health indexes Recent (Aug 2025): 3.4% year-over-year health care price increase Additional sources: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/health-care-inflation-in-the-united-states/ \| https://www.in2013dollars.com/Medical-care/price-inflation \| https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5785315/ \| https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_health_care_inflation_rate*
.
24\.
UNHCR. UNHCR forcibly displaced people 2023. *UNHCR* (2023)
*At the end of 2023, 117.3 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced. Additional sources: https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends-report-2023*
.
25\.
CGDev. UNHCR average refugee support cost. *CGDev* (2024)
*The average cost of supporting a refugee is \$1,384 per year. This represents total host country costs (housing, healthcare, education, security). OECD countries average \$6,100 per refugee (mean 2022-2023), with developing countries spending \$700-1,000. Global weighted average of \$1,384 is reasonable given that 75-85% of refugees are in low/middle-income countries. Additional sources: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/costs-hosting-refugees-oecd-countries-and-why-uk-outlier \| https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/2024-11/UNHCR-WB-global-cost-of-refugee-inclusion-in-host-country-health-systems.pdf*
.
26\.
ASPE. Refugee lost annual earning potential (\$23,400). *ASPE: Fiscal Impact of Refugees*
*Refugee economic impact: Net positive \$123.8B fiscal impact (2005-2019, 15 years) Refugees pay \$21K more in taxes than benefits received over first 20 years in U.S. Earnings gap: Refugees work at higher rates than natives but earn less; never reach U.S.-born earning levels Income progression: \<5 years in U.S. = \$30,500 median; 20+ years = \$71,400 (exceeds national \$67,100 median) Note: Specific "\$23,400 lost earning potential" figure not verified in sources Additional sources: https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/fiscal-impact-refugees-asylees \| https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/sites/default/files/research/05.23_refugee_report_v3_0.pdf \| https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23498/w23498.pdf*
.
27\.
Costs of War Project, Brown University Watson Institute. Environmental cost of war (\$100B annually). *Brown Watson Costs of War: Environmental Cost*
*War on Terror emissions: 1.2B metric tons GHG (equivalent to 257M cars/year) Military: 5.5% of global GHG emissions (2X aviation + shipping combined) US DoD: World’s single largest institutional oil consumer, 47th largest emitter if nation Cleanup costs: \$500B+ for military contaminated sites Gaza war environmental damage: \$56.4B; landmine clearance: \$34.6B expected Climate finance gap: Rich nations spend 30X more on military than climate finance Note: Military activities cause massive environmental damage through GHG emissions, toxic contamination, and long-term cleanup costs far exceeding current climate finance commitments Additional sources: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment \| https://earth.org/environmental-costs-of-wars/ \| https://transformdefence.org/transformdefence/stats/*
.
28\.
PubMed. Psychological impact of war cost (\$100B annually). *PubMed: Economic Burden of PTSD*
*PTSD economic burden (2018 U.S.): \$232.2B total (\$189.5B civilian, \$42.7B military) Civilian costs driven by: Direct healthcare (\$66B), unemployment (\$42.7B) Military costs driven by: Disability (\$17.8B), direct healthcare (\$10.1B) Exceeds costs of other mental health conditions (anxiety, depression) War-exposed populations: 2-3X higher rates of anxiety, depression, PTSD; women and children most vulnerable Note: Actual burden \$232B, significantly higher than "\$100B" claimed Additional sources: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/ \| https://news.va.gov/103611/study-national-economic-burden-of-ptsd-staggering/ \| https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9957523/*
.
29\.
World Bank. Global GDP in 2023 (\$89.5 trillion). *World Bank* (2023).
30\.
Share the World’s Resources. War spending vs WHO budget. *Share the World’s Resources*
*The WHO’s annual budget of US\$2.1 billion is equivalent to global military expenditure every eight hours. WHO Director-General noted that US\$2.1 billion is the price of one stealth bomber. A 1% increase in military spending results in a 0.62% decrease in health spending globally. Additional sources: https://sharing.org/information-centre/news/world-health-organisations-annual-budget-equivalent-global-military/ \| https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9174441/*
.
31\.
Daggett, S. [Costs of major u.s. wars](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/RS22926.pdf). (2010)
*Congressional Research Service estimates of the costs of major U.S. wars from the American Revolution through post-9/11 operations, in both current-year and constant FY2011 dollars.*
32\.
Crawford, N. C. & Lutz, C. [Blood and treasure: United states budgetary costs and human costs of 20 years of war](https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/). (2023)
*The total costs of the post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria are expected to exceed \$8 trillion. This includes \$2.89 trillion for Iraq/Syria, veterans care through 2050 projected at more than \$2 trillion, and interest on war debt adding \$6.5 trillion through 2050.*
33\.
Harrison, M. *[The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison](https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/economics-of-world-war-ii/043CE9F3DC5036A731E5555C4A84E424)*. (Cambridge University Press, 2000).
34\.
Watson Institute, Brown University. [Environmental costs of war](https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/environmental). (2023)
*Between 2001 and 2018, US military operations produced 1.3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Syria generated about 440 million tonnes. Comprehensive accounting of post-9/11 environmental destruction.*
35\.
Rummel, R. J. *[Death by Government: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900](https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM)*. (Transaction Publishers, 1994).
*Political scientist R.J. Rummel’s comprehensive accounting of democide (government murder of unarmed civilians) in the 20th century. His final revised estimate: 262 million people murdered by their own governments from 1900-1999, excluding battle deaths in wars. Range: 200-272+ million. Communist regimes account for the largest share (100-148+ million). Updated figures at hawaii.edu/powerkills.*
36\.
White, M. [Estimated totals for the entire 20th century](https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm). (2011)
*Matthew White’s compilation of 20th century death tolls: approximately 123 million from wars (37M military, 27M civilian, 41M democide, 18M famine). Range across sources: 123-203 million depending on methodology and inclusion criteria.*
37\.
National Science Board. [Science and engineering labor force](https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/assets/901/science-and-engineering-labor-force.pdf). (2018)
*Scientists and engineers make up about 5 percent of the U.S. labor force. Provides workforce demographics and trends for STEM professions.*
38\.
Waal, A. de. [The end of famine? Prospects for the elimination of mass starvation by political action](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.09.004). *Political Geography* **62**, 184–195 (2018)
*Children under the age of five are particularly vulnerable, usually accounting for between one half and two thirds of all excess deaths in famines. Cited via Our World in Data.*
39\.
Sever, F. L. [Wars and children](https://doi.org/10.5152/TurkArchPediatr.2022.180422). *Turkish Archives of Pediatrics* **57**, 253 (2022)
*Nearly 90 percent of deaths from wars in the first decade of the 21st century included civilians, a significant number of whom were children.*
40\.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. [HHS standard values for regulatory analysis, 2024](https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/cd2a1348ea0777b1aa918089e4965b8c/standard-ria-values.pdf). (2024)
*HHS adopts central value of 591,000 USD for Quality-Adjusted Life Year (VQALY) and 495,000 USD for Value per Statistical Life Year (VSLY) for 2024 regulatory analysis. Low/central/high VQALY: 276K/591K/899K.*
41\.
Barrios, D. & Sanz-Gracia, F. A farewell to arms: The peace dividend of costa rica’s army abolition. *Journal of Development Studies* (2024)
*Synthetic control analysis of Costa Rica after 1949 army abolition. Per capita GDP growth increased from 1.46 percent to 2.28 percent (1950-2010), an increase of 0.51-0.82 percentage points annually. The peace dividend was sustained over six decades.*
42\.
d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P. & Pieroni, L. Does military spending stifle economic growth? The empirical evidence from non-OECD countries. *Economic Modelling* (2019)
*Panel data covering 133 countries (1960-2012). A 1 percentage point increase in military expenditure as share of GDP reduces economic growth by approximately 1.10 percentage points. Military spending crowds out private investment and diverts resources from productive public expenditure.*
43\.
Sinn, M. P. *The 1% Treaty*. (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.20076511](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20076511)
*Your governments possess nuclear weapons sufficient to end civilization 122 times but have not cured Alzheimer’s once. This treaty asks them to be 1% more rational.*
44\.
Sinn, M. P. *The 1% Treaty: An Incentive-Compatible Approach to Ending War and Disease*. (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.18161560](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18161560)
*6,650 diseases have zero FDA-approved treatments; at current trial capacity, exploring them takes 443 years. Redirecting 1% of military spending scales capacity 12.3x, cutting the timeline to 36 years and preventing 10.7 billion deaths. At \$0.02/DALY, 9.3kx more cost-effective than the best existing interventions. The result holds across every specified adoption pathway.*
45\.
Rummel, R. J. *[Statistics of Democide: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900](https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE5.HTM)*. (Lit Verlag, 1997).
*Detailed statistical tables and source documentation for every major case of democide in the 20th century. Companion volume to Death by Government with regime-by-regime breakdowns, confidence ranges, and methodology notes.*
46\.
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. [Darfur](https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/darfur). (2024)
*Between 2003 and 2008, armed conflict and targeted killings in Darfur caused about 300,000 civilian deaths and displaced about 2.7 million civilians. The 300,000 figure originates from UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes, who in April 2008 described it as a reasonable extrapolation from a 2006 estimate of 200,000 deaths.*
47\.
United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner. *Civilian Deaths in the Syrian Arab Republic: Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights*. (2022)
*The UN Human Rights Office estimated that 306,887 civilians were killed in the Syrian conflict between March 2011 and March 2021, an average of 83 per day, representing 1.5 percent of the pre-war population. The Syrian Network for Human Rights separately estimated the government and its allies were responsible for approximately 91 percent of civilian casualties.*
48\.
Anadolu Agency. [New report: Myanmar army killed over 24,000 Rohingya](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/new-report-myanmar-army-killed-over-24-000-rohingya/1235442). (2018)
*The Ontario International Development Agency report “Forced Migration of Rohingya: The Untold Experience” estimated 23,962 (plus or minus 881) Rohingya were killed by Myanmar state forces since August 2017. The report also documented over 17,718 women and girls raped and over 114,000 beaten.*
49\.
Correlates of War Project. [National material capabilities (NMC) dataset](https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/). (2017).
50\.
Congressional Research Service. *Advanced Gene Editing: CRISPR-Cas9*. (2018).
51\.
EPI. Education investment economic multiplier (2.1). *EPI: Public Investments Outside Core Infrastructure*
*Early childhood education: Benefits 12X outlays by 2050; \$8.70 per dollar over lifetime Educational facilities: \$1 spent → \$1.50 economic returns Energy efficiency comparison: 2-to-1 benefit-to-cost ratio (McKinsey) Private return to schooling: 9% per additional year (World Bank meta-analysis) Note: 2.1 multiplier aligns with benefit-to-cost ratios for educational infrastructure/energy efficiency. Early childhood education shows much higher returns (12X by 2050) Additional sources: https://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/ \| https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/442521523465644318/pdf/WPS8402.pdf \| https://freopp.org/whitepapers/establishing-a-practical-return-on-investment-framework-for-education-and-skills-development-to-expand-economic-opportunity/*
.
52\.
Component country budgets. Global government medical research spending (\$67.5B, 2023–2024). *See component country budgets: NIH Budget* .
53\.
Applied Clinical Trials. Global government spending on interventional clinical trials: \$3-6 billion/year. *Applied Clinical Trials*
*Estimated range based on NIH ( \$0.8-5.6B), NIHR (\$1.6B total budget), and EU funding ( \$1.3B/year). Roughly 5-10% of global market. Additional sources: https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market \| https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30357-0/fulltext*
.
54\.
SIPRI. Global military spending (\$2.72T, 2024). *SIPRI* (2025).
55\.
PMC. Healthcare investment economic multiplier (1.8). *PMC: California Universal Health Care* (2022)
*Healthcare fiscal multiplier: 4.3 (95% CI: 2.5-6.1) during pre-recession period (1995-2007) Overall government spending multiplier: 1.61 (95% CI: 1.37-1.86) Why healthcare has high multipliers: No effect on trade deficits (spending stays domestic); improves productivity & competitiveness; enhances long-run potential output Gender-sensitive fiscal spending (health & care economy) produces substantial positive growth impacts Note: "1.8" appears to be conservative estimate; research shows healthcare multipliers of 4.3 Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/ \| https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/government-investment-and-fiscal-stimulus \| https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3849102/ \| https://set.odi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Fiscal-multipliers-review.pdf*
.
56\.
U.S. Government Accountability Office. *Electronic Health Records: First Year of CMS’s Incentive Programs Shows Opportunities to Improve Processes to Verify Providers Met Requirements*. (2012).
57\.
NHGRI. Human genome project and CRISPR discovery. *NHGRI* (2003)
*Your DNA is 3 billion base pairs Read the entire code (Human Genome Project, completed 2003) Learned to edit it (CRISPR, discovered 2012) Additional sources: https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp \| https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2020/press-release/*
.
58\.
World Bank. Infrastructure investment economic multiplier (1.6). *World Bank: Infrastructure Investment as Stimulus* (2022)
*Infrastructure fiscal multiplier: 1.6 during contractionary phase of economic cycle Average across all economic states: 1.5 (meaning \$1 of public investment → \$1.50 of economic activity) Time horizon: 0.8 within 1 year, 1.5 within 2-5 years Range of estimates: 1.5-2.0 (following 2008 financial crisis & American Recovery Act) Italian public construction: 1.5-1.9 multiplier US ARRA: 0.4-2.2 range (differential impacts by program type) Economic Policy Institute: Uses 1.6 for infrastructure spending (middle range of estimates) Note: Public investment less likely to crowd out private activity during recessions; particularly effective when monetary policy loose with near-zero rates Additional sources: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned \| https://www.gihub.org/infrastructure-monitor/insights/fiscal-multiplier-effect-of-infrastructure-investment/ \| https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/government-investment-and-fiscal-stimulus \| https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2022/eb_22-04*
.
59\.
Bolt, J. & Zanden, J. L. van. [Maddison project database 2020](https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020). (2020)
*Historical GDP per capita estimates from year 1 to present. Global GDP per capita in 1900: approximately 1,260 in 1990 international dollars (roughly 3,150 in 2024 USD after PPP and inflation adjustment). Standard reference for long-run comparative economic history.*
60\.
Mercatus. Military spending economic multiplier (0.6). *Mercatus: Defense Spending and Economy*
*Ramey (2011): 0.6 short-run multiplier Barro (1981): 0.6 multiplier for WWII spending (war spending crowded out 40¢ private economic activity per federal dollar) Barro & Redlick (2011): 0.4 within current year, 0.6 over two years; increased govt spending reduces private-sector GDP portions General finding: \$1 increase in deficit-financed federal military spending = less than \$1 increase in GDP Variation by context: Central/Eastern European NATO: 0.6 on impact, 1.5-1.6 in years 2-3, gradual fall to zero Ramey & Zubairy (2018): Cumulative 1% GDP increase in military expenditure raises GDP by 0.7% Additional sources: https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy \| https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/world-war-ii-america-spending-deficits-multipliers-and-sacrifice \| https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA739-2/RAND_RRA739-2.pdf*
.
61\.
National Institutes of Health BRAIN Initiative. [BRAIN 2025: A scientific vision](https://braininitiative.nih.gov/vision/nih-brain-initiative-reports/brain-2025-scientific-vision). (2014).
62\.
U.S. Government Accountability Office. *Operation Warp Speed Vaccine Candidate Awards Potential Value*. (2020).
63\.
PCORnet. [PCORnet quarterly progress report, Q4 2025](https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf). (2026).
64\.
NIH Common Fund. NIH pragmatic trials: Minimal funding despite 30x cost advantage. *NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory* (2025)
*The NIH Pragmatic Trials Collaboratory funds trials at \$500K for planning phase, \$1M/year for implementation-a tiny fraction of NIH’s budget. The ADAPTABLE trial cost \$14 million for 15,076 patients (= \$929/patient) versus \$420 million for a similar traditional RCT (30x cheaper), yet pragmatic trials remain severely underfunded. PCORnet infrastructure enables real-world trials embedded in healthcare systems, but receives minimal support compared to basic research funding. Additional sources: https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory \| https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ADAPTABLE_Lay_Summary_21JUL2025.pdf \| https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5604499/*
.
65\.
ICER. Value per QALY (standard economic value). *ICER* (2024)
*Standard economic value per QALY: \$100,000–\$150,000. This is the US and global standard willingness-to-pay threshold for interventions that add costs. Dominant interventions (those that save money while improving health) are favorable regardless of this threshold. Additional sources: https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf*
.
[^1]: This estimate is built from multiple sources. SIPRI data from 1988-2024 sums to approximately \$65-72 trillion in constant dollars^([3](../references.llms.md#ref-sipri-milex-2024),[6](../references.llms.md#ref-sipri2024)). The Cold War era (1946-1987) adds roughly \$50-70 trillion, reconstructed from US spending data (the US accounted for ~37-40% of global totals) and CIA estimates of Soviet expenditure. World War II cost all belligerents approximately \$23 trillion in 2024 dollars^([33](../references.llms.md#ref-harrison-economics-wwii)), World War I approximately \$7 trillion, with another \$3-5 trillion for interwar military budgets. The 19th century adds roughly \$3 trillion (Napoleonic Wars, American Civil War, colonial conflicts, routine garrison spending). Pre-1800 military spending, estimated via GDP-share equivalence using Maddison Project historical GDP data, adds \$4-20 trillion with enormous uncertainty; the Roman Empire alone spent an estimated \$1-2 trillion over five centuries. The range is \$150-225 trillion; \$180 trillion is the central estimate. Roughly 75% of the total was spent after 1945, because global GDP grew 100-fold since 1900 while military burdens stayed at 2-5% of output.
[^2]: Built from non-overlapping categories: Rummel’s democide estimate of 264M (government murder of civilians, 1900-present, which explicitly excludes battle deaths^([35](../references.llms.md#ref-rummel-death-by-government))) + 39M military battle deaths + 30M collateral civilian war deaths^([2](../references.llms.md#ref-leitenberg-deaths-wars-2006),[36](../references.llms.md#ref-necrometrics-20th-century)) - ~25M overlap adjustment (some civilian massacres counted by both Rummel and war casualty tallies) = ~310M. Range: 200M (White’s narrow definition) to 340M (Rummel high + all military).
[^3]: Post-Rummel table entries (North Korea post-1987, Iraq, Yugoslavia) draw on Human Rights Watch, UN tribunal findings, and country-specific academic estimates rather than Rummel’s dataset, which ended circa 1987.