# Earth Optimization Prize 90-Day Pilot

A 90-day pilot to launch the first public Earth Optimization Prize without creating a single point of failure

### Note

**Document Type:** Institutional pilot proposal\
**Pilot Length:** 90 days\
**Default Role:** Initiating host, not sovereign owner\
**Primary Goal:** Make the [Earth Optimization Prize](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html)^([1](../references.llms.md#ref-earth-optimization-prize-paper-2025)) publicly real without creating a single point of failure

## Pilot Objective

Launch the first credible public version of the [Earth Optimization Prize](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html) selection process.

At the end of 90 days, the host institution should have produced:

1.  a public rules page,
2.  a named review panel,
3.  a funded adversarial-review pool,
4.  a live public scoreboard, and
5.  the first set of credible submissions and public commitments.

That is the smallest credible pilot.

## Problem Statement

The broader project is trying to solve a coordination failure, not just publish another proposal.

Humanity already has the parts: cheaper [pragmatic clinical trials](../../knowledge/solution/dfda.llms.md), better [public-goods allocation](../../knowledge/solution/wishocracy.llms.md), measurable [policy learning](../../knowledge/solution/optimocracy.llms.md), and large waste pools that could be reallocated via the [Political Dysfunction Tax](../../knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.llms.md)^([2](../references.llms.md#ref-political-dysfunction-tax-paper-2025)) and [US Efficiency Audit](https://us-efficiency-audit.warondisease.org)^([3](../references.llms.md#ref-us-efficiency-audit-paper-2025)). What it lacks is a public mechanism that can do all four of these at once:

1.  compare integrated plans against a visible benchmark,
2.  reward serious participation and recruitment,
3.  surface better replacements through [adversarial review](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html),
4.  turn public support into laws that pass.

That is why the first 90 days matter. The pilot is the step where the project becomes real instead of a stack of papers.

## Why This Pilot Matters

The prize is trying to shift humanity off a current trajectory where the [destructive economy](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html)^([4](../references.llms.md#ref-gdp-trajectories-paper-2025)) is already [11.5%](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_destructive_economy_pct_gdp) of GDP today, reaches the failed-state danger zone by [2033](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-destructive_economy_25pct_year), and reaches 50% of GDP by [2040](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-destructive_economy_50pct_year). At that point, stealing beats creating, because whatever gets created gets looted as fast as it is produced.

The upside of a better branch is large enough to justify building public coordination infrastructure around it. The [Minimum Sustainable Trajectory (1% Treaty)](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html)^([5](../references.llms.md#ref-1-percent-treaty-paper-2025)) ^([6](../references.llms.md#ref-1-pct-treaty-impact-paper-2025)) adds [\$518,879 (90% CI: \$221,703-\$860,930)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-treaty_trajectory_lifetime_income_gain_per_capita) in modeled lifetime income and [16.1 years (90% CI: 6.53 years-27.4 years)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-treaty_hale_gain_year_15) of healthy life by year 15. The [Optimal Governance Trajectory](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html) adds [\$36.4 million (90% CI: \$13.5 million-\$97 million)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-wishonia_trajectory_lifetime_income_gain_per_capita) and [26.8 years (90% CI: 20.6 years-39.2 years)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-wishonia_hale_gain_year_15).

The 90-day pilot is not trying to achieve those outcomes directly. It is trying to create the public machinery that can discover, test, and coordinate around the best available route toward them.

## What The Pilot Is A Pilot For

The full benchmark system is [Earth Optimization Protocol v1](../../knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.llms.md). A sponsor does not need to memorize the whole document, but it should understand the stack it is helping bring into public view.

| Component | Job in the larger system | Pilot relevance |
|----|----|----|
| **[Earth Optimization Prize](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html)** | Open contest, scoreboard, and outcome-linked success pool | **Directly launched now** |
| **[Global Referendum](../../knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.llms.md)** | Visible public support and preference signal | Adjacent next-step layer |
| **[Incentive Alignment Bonds](../../knowledge/solution/incentive-alignment-bonds.llms.md)** | Finance lobbying and implementation pressure | Later financing layer |
| **[1% Treaty](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html)** | Redirect 1% of military spending into clinical trials and related incentives | Later legal/political target |
| **[Decentralized Institutes of Health](../../knowledge/solution/dih.llms.md)** | Treasury and verification protocol for redirected funds | Downstream operating layer |
| **[Your decentralized FDA](../../knowledge/solution/dfda.llms.md)** | Cheap, high-throughput pragmatic trial engine | Downstream implementation layer |
| **[Wishocracy](../../knowledge/solution/wishocracy.llms.md)** | Public preference aggregation for budget allocation | Used as part of plan comparison and later allocation |
| **[Optimocracy](../../knowledge/solution/optimocracy.llms.md) / [OPG](https://opg.warondisease.org) / [OBG](https://obg.warondisease.org)** | Evidence and recommendation machinery for policy and budget choices | Background evidence layer for judging and later operations |
| **[Political Dysfunction Tax](../../knowledge/problem/unrepresentative-democracy.llms.md)** and **[US Efficiency Audit](https://us-efficiency-audit.warondisease.org)** | Waste maps and opportunity-cost accounting | Background case for why reallocation matters |
| **[Legal framework](../../knowledge/legal/legal-framework.llms.md)** | Treaty/statutory/election-law path | Constraint set for credible contenders |
| **[Phase 2 monetary transition](../../knowledge/futures/wishonia.llms.md#the-algorithm-that-replaced-twelve-humans)** | Long-run replacement of fiat-era fiscal/monetary machinery | Explicitly outside pilot scope |

The host institution does not build every downstream component in 90 days. It launches the public contest, review process, and scoreboard that decides what should advance.

## Existing Implementation Base

The pilot is extending an existing implementation base, not inventing the entire stack from scratch.

| Existing asset | Current state | Why it matters for the pilot |
|----|----|----|
| **[Optimitron](https://optomitron.com)** | Live public app with budget analysis, policy analysis, comparisons, misconceptions testing, alignment flows, and prize/referendum entry points | Gives the pilot a visible software base immediately |
| **[Optimitron repository](https://github.com/mikepsinn/optomitron)** | Public monorepo implementing the core engine, app packages, data layer, and treasury packages | Lets reviewers inspect real code instead of a PDF |
| **Evidence machine stack** | [Optimocracy](../../knowledge/solution/optimocracy.llms.md), OPG, and OBG components already implemented in code | Means the scoring layer already works, not just a plan |
| **[Wishocracy](../../knowledge/solution/wishocracy.llms.md) stack** | Pairwise preference aggregation and alignment logic already built | Reduces product risk around citizen preference collection |
| **Identity / participation layer** | Auth, profile, referral plumbing, and World ID-aware participation surfaces already exist | Means the pilot can focus on public process rather than first building account infrastructure |
| **Treasury packages** | PRIZE / VOTE / IAB / `$WISH` packages are already present in the codebase | Makes it plausible to connect the pilot to later financing rails without re-architecting from scratch |
| **Testing base** | Roughly 2,900+ tests across the workspace, plus strict TypeScript and typed schemas | Gives the institution something closer to a software program than a speculative concept note |

For a host institution, this changes the offer. The pilot is not funding the invention of a whole new universe. It is hosting the first credible public selection and review process around an already substantial implementation base.

## Scope

This pilot covers only Stage 1 of the broader launch sequence.

Included:

1.  challenge publication,
2.  benchmark-plan publication of [Earth Optimization Protocol v1](../../knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.llms.md),
3.  panel formation,
4.  [adversarial review](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html),
5.  scoreboard launch,
6.  first submission intake,
7.  first public commitments and milestone reporting.

Explicitly out of scope for the pilot:

1.  final institutional endorsement of [Earth Optimization Protocol v1](../../knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-protocol-v1.llms.md),
2.  treaty passage,
3.  large-scale lobbying execution,
4.  permanent governance lock-in,
5.  making the host institution the sole root of trust.

## Host Responsibilities

The host institution is responsible for five things.

| Responsibility | Output |
|----|----|
| Publish the challenge | Public pilot page explaining targets, constraints, timeline, and submission path |
| Convene reviewers | Named panel roster with clear filtering role and conflict-of-interest standard |
| Fund [adversarial review](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html) | Public bounty pool for red-team critiques, metric-gaming attacks, and superior replacement components |
| Launch public measurement | Scoreboard showing host milestones, submission counts, and early participation/commitment signals |
| Coordinate first cycle | Public timeline for submission, review, challenge, revision, and selection of serious contenders |

## Governance Boundaries

The host institution should agree to these constraints up front.

1.  Hosting does not mean the institution owns the mechanism.
2.  Hosting does not require endorsing v1 as final truth.
3.  Rules, documentation, and milestone reporting should be public.
4.  Interfaces and implementation paths should be replaceable.
5.  Another host should be able to continue the process if the first host stops.

The central principle is:

**The first institution should make the process credible, not captive.**

## Suggested 90-Day Timeline

| Window | Target |
|----|----|
| **Days 1-14** | Publish pilot memo, challenge rules, evaluation criteria, and candidate panel list |
| **Days 15-30** | Finalize panel, open submissions, and announce red-team bounty terms |
| **Days 31-60** | Run first adversarial-review cycle, publish critiques, and keep scoreboard live |
| **Days 61-90** | Publish revised contender set, summarize lessons, and decide whether to expand into the next public phase |

## Milestones

The pilot should track sponsor-facing milestones first, then public-growth milestones.

### Sponsor-Facing Milestones

1.  initiating host announced,
2.  rules published,
3.  expert panel formed,
4.  bounty pool funded,
5.  scoreboard live,
6.  first credible submissions received.

### Early Public Milestones

1.  first visible seed commitments,
2.  first serious participant cohort,
3.  first replicated public references to the scoreboard,
4.  first external critique or replacement proposal,
5.  first evidence that the process is attracting people beyond the host’s own network.

## Deliverables

By day 90, the host should be able to point to a concrete package:

1.  one public pilot page,
2.  one public ruleset,
3.  one named panel roster,
4.  one public bounty pool,
5.  one live scoreboard,
6.  one public summary of submissions and critiques,
7.  one decision memo on whether to expand, revise, or hand off to a successor host.

## Budget Framework

This pilot is intentionally modular. The host does not need to fund the full downstream campaign. It only needs to fund the first credible public test.

The budget categories are:

1.  program management,
2.  challenge-page and scoreboard implementation,
3.  expert-panel honoraria if desired,
4.  adversarial-review bounty pool,
5.  legal/compliance review,
6.  editorial and communications support.

The right budget is the smallest amount that makes the pilot visibly real and publicly legible. The pilot should be cheap enough to approve quickly and serious enough that outsiders can no longer dismiss the process as hypothetical.

## Success Criteria

The pilot succeeds if, by day 90:

1.  the process exists in public,
2.  serious outsiders can inspect and attack it,
3.  the benchmark plan has at least one credible challenger or red-team critique,
4.  the scoreboard makes progress legible,
5.  the next institution or funder can join without needing private permission from the host.

## Expansion Decision

If the pilot works, the next phase is not “centralize everything under the first institution.” The next phase is:

1.  expand participation,
2.  admit stronger challengers,
3.  add co-hosts or successor hosts,
4.  connect the contest outputs to [Prize deposits](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html), the [referendum](../../knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.llms.md), and later [implementation financing](../../knowledge/solution/incentive-alignment-bonds.llms.md).

If the pilot fails, the output should still be useful: a public record of what broke, what was attacked, and what must be improved before trying again.

## Recommended Next Step

If your institution is plausibly willing to host the initiating node, the next step is simple:

1.  designate a pilot owner,
2.  commit to the 90-day scope,
3.  publish the rules,
4.  invite scrutiny immediately.

Background reading:

- [The Initiating Node Memo](../../knowledge/strategy/initiating-node-memo.llms.md)
- [The Earth Optimization Prize](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html)

The project does not need the first host to be omniscient. It needs the first host to be credible, bounded, and willing to let the process remain larger than itself.

1\.

Sinn, M. P. *The Earth Optimization Prize*. <https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html> (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.19076597](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19076597)

*Reward humanity for raising healthy life years and median income within 15 years. PRIZE keeps depositors on the failure branch, VOTE rewards recruiters on the success branch, and Earth Optimization Protocol v1 is only the current instruction manual for trying to win.*

2\.

Sinn, M. P. *The Political Dysfunction Tax*. <https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html> (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.18603840](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18603840)

*Quantifying the gap between current global governance and theoretical maximum welfare, estimating a 31-53% efficiency score and \$101 trillion in annual opportunity costs.*

3\.

Sinn, M. P. *United States Efficiency Audit*. <https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/us-efficiency-audit.html> (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.18447476](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18447476)

*Systems audit estimating an annual U.S. efficiency gap of \$4.9T, with \$2.45T recoverable at OECD-median performance across direct spending waste, compliance burden, policy-induced GDP loss, and system inefficiency.*

4\.

Sinn, M. P. *Choose Your Own Earth: A World Without the Political Dysfunction Tax, or Terminal Parasitic Load in 15 Years*. <https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html> (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.19076850](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19076850)

*Your destructive economy (military spending plus cybercrime) is already 11.5% of GDP and growing faster than your productive economy. At current rates, it reaches the Soviet collapse threshold in 8 years and exceeds productive output in 15. This paper models two GDP trajectories: the optimized path under military-to-medical reallocation, and the default path to civilizational collapse.*

5\.

Sinn, M. P. *The 1% Treaty*. <https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html> (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.20076511](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20076511)

*Your governments possess nuclear weapons sufficient to end civilization 122 times but have not cured Alzheimer’s once. This treaty asks them to be 1% more rational.*

6\.

Sinn, M. P. *The 1% Treaty: An Incentive-Compatible Approach to Ending War and Disease*. <https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html> (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.18161560](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18161560)

*6,650 diseases have zero FDA-approved treatments; at current trial capacity, exploring them takes  443 years. Redirecting 1% of military spending scales capacity 12.3x, cutting the timeline to  36 years and preventing 10.7 billion deaths. At \$0.02/DALY, 9.3kx more cost-effective than the best existing interventions. The result holds across every specified adoption pathway.*